Discussion Papers 2007.
Regionality and/or Locality 44-52. p.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS IN BULGARIA
– GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSIONS
CHAVDAR MLADENOV
Introduction
The geographical aspects of demographic phenomena and processes have been the
focus of research for many years. In Bulgaria these processes and phenomena were
most  intensive  in  the  1950s  when  the  regional  demographic information  began  to
be  thoroughly  analyzed.  General  theoretical  principles  about  the  development  of
population and economy were employed to explain the regional differences.
The  negative  processes,  accompanying  the  population  development,  are  char-
acteristic  of  all  advanced  and  highly  advanced  nations.  The  consequences  for  the
society and for the demographic systems are similar but they have different inten-
sity  in  different  periods  of  time.  As  the  demographic  crisis  in  these  countries  is
considerably  mitigated  by  immigration  and  by  the  extension  of  the  average  life
expectancy,  the  aforesaid  problem  is  not  in  the  centre  of  scientific  discussions  in
them. On a global scale the population growth, the high birth rates and the related
problems with the natural resources and environmental pollution are still regarded
to be of major concern. At the same time, the forthcoming demographic problems
(depopulation, reduced population reproduction and population aging), which will
result in irreversible negative social and economic effects and demographic crises
especially in the small states, are ignored.
The demographic crisis first affects territorial units of low rank and individual
settlements. In geographical terms it is characterized by depopulation with empha-
sis placed primarily upon the population size while the reproduction and migration
processes are underestimated.
The  demographic  crisis  is  a  phenomenon,  observed  mainly  in  Eastern  Europe
(Latvia,  Estonia,  Hungary,  Bulgaria)  and  is  not  so  typical  of  the  advanced  coun-
tries.  That  is  why  most  of  the  investigations  are  general  and  hypothetical  and  do
not treat it from geographical aspects. Demographers begin to show interest in this
issue in the mid–1990s when the demographic situation reached its worst parame-
ters – very low birth rates, high crude and age specific death rates, marked popula-
tion  aging,  emigration,  high  unemployment,  etc.  This  research  aims  to  reveal  the
spatial  characteristics  of  the  demographic  crisis  in  Bulgaria.  For  that  purpose  it
analyzes  the  quantitative  parameters  of  the  demographic  crisis,  defines  its  phases
and  on  their  basis  classifies  the  territorial  units  and  describes  the  main  socio-
economic problems.

Chavdar Mladenov : The Demographic Crisis in Bulgaria - Geographical Dimensions
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In some respects the adverse demographic tendencies in Bulgaria can be estab-
lished as early as the end of the 1960s but they become most acute at the beginning
of  the  1990s  when  the  population  development  enters  a  new  period  notable  for
further demographic destabilization.
Demographic crisis – demographic situation
The  term  “demographic  crisis”  is  closely  related  to  the  term.  The  demographic
situation is an element of the “social situation” which is defined as a combination
of  social  components  (people,  social  communities,  public  relations,  social institu-
tions, social processes) in a certain locality and at a specific time.
The demographic situation can be also considered as a geographical category. It
depends on the specific geographical and historical conditions of a territorial unit.
In this paper, the “demographic situation” means the main demographic processes
and  structures  for  a  certain  period  of  time,  resulting  from  social,  demographic,
economic,  geographical,  ethnical,  cultural  and  some  other  factors.  It  reflects  the
objective socio-economic regularities in society. The demographic situation is dif-
ferent in different stages of demographic transition and largely depends on its own
features in the near or more distant past.
The demographic crisis illustrates the heavily aggravated processes, concerning
the population – depopulation, declining birth rates, rising death rates, deteriorated
population  structures,  etc.  The  adverse  quantitative  changes  in  the  parameters  of
the  demographic  situation  have  approached  thresholds,  which  cause  qualitative
transformations. “Threshold” means such processes and phenomena which lead to
continuous  destabilization  in  the  population  reproduction  and  to  socio-economic
problems  or  problems  of  living  conditions  and  which  requires  measures  so  as  to
reduce and overcome the negative effects. The demographic crisis is specific under
certain  geographical  and  historical  conditions  and  is  associated  with  the  specific
socio-economic  characteristics  of  an  individual  locality.  In  this  paper  the  term
“demographic crisis” denotes the extremely low values of the major demographic
processes  and  structures  which  have  been  reached  as  a  result  of  socio-economic,
urban, cultural, ethnical, geographical factors and of service infrastructure.
Geodemographic analysis
The complex  geodemographic  analysis  of the level  of  demographic  crisis,  caused
by numerous factors, is based on a whole set of indicators, which characterize most
of these factors. For that purpose 13 indicators have been used: birth rate (for the

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CHAVDAR MLADENOV
period 1993–2001), death rate (1993–2001), natural increase (1993–2001), number
of  in-migrants  (1993–2001),  number  of  out-migrants  (1993–2001),  migration  in-
crease (1993–2001), changes in the population number (1993–2001), net migration
(1993–2001), share of population at ages from 0 to 14 (2001), share of population
at ages 15–59 (2001), share of population aged 60 years or older (2001), share of
Turkish population (2001) and share of gypsies (2001). The demographic crisis is
defined as multidimensional characteristic of the social and demographic structure,
economic  development,  the  level  of  urbanization,  reproductive  and  migration  be-
havior  of  the  population.    Therefore,  the  phases  of  the  demographic  crisis  are  a
result of different combination of indicators, characterizing the areas under investi-
gation. Their parameters, describing the respective phases, are not stable in space
and time and so, the territorial units can pass from one phase into another.
Generally,  the  demographic  crises  can  be  divided  into  the  following  phases  –
initial, intermediate and final. Some phases can be further divided into sub-phases,
which depend on the specific nature of the demographic processes.
Initial  phase  of  demographic  crisis.  It  is  characterized  by  a  birth  rate  which
varies  around  10‰  on  the  average.  At  the  same  time  this  is  the  phase  where  the
highest birth rate on a national scale has been recorded – 12–13‰. This figure is
close to the threshold of the simple population reproduction. The death rate is about
11.9‰. The migration movements are dominated by out-migrations and hence, the
migration increase and the net migration are negative. The negative net migration
is  twice  as  high  as  the  national  average  (-5.2‰).  The  rate  of  population  drop  (–
6.9‰)  is  lower  than the  national  average  by  0.7  points. The  age  structure  is  rela-
tively good. The shares of population at below-working age (17.2%) and at work-
ing age (63.6%) are by 1–2 points greater than those for the country and the share
of above-working age population (19.2%) is by 3 points smaller. The ethnic struc-
ture displays high concentration of Turks and gypsies. The share of Turkish popu-
lation is twice as high as the national average – 18.8%, and of the gypsies – by 2
points (6%).
The initial phase of demographic crisis embraces the population of areas where
the natural increase is about zero or slightly below zero. In the municipalities with
negative migration increase the social, economic, geographical conditions and ser-
vice infrastructure do not favour the positive reproduction pattern of population. In
the  municipalities  with  positive  natural  increase  the  low  educational  and  cultural
level, the ethnic identity, the low migration mobility, the high average numbers of
children per one family encourage a considerably high birth rate.
Intermediate phase of demographic crisis. This phase is remarkable for a birth
rate,  which  is  roughly  similar  to  the  national  average  and  yet,  negligibly  lower
(8.6‰). It widely varies from one municipality to another (the difference is within
6 points). The same applies to death rate that is 13.9‰ on the average but depend-
ing  on  the  degree  of  population  aging,  it  varies  within  14  points.  The  natural  in-

Chavdar Mladenov : The Demographic Crisis in Bulgaria - Geographical Dimensions
In: Regionality and/or Locality. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies 2007. 44-52. p.
Discussion Papers, Special
THE DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS IN BULGARIA – GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSIONS
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7
crease is negative and is close to the national average –  -5.4‰. The rate of popu-
lation drop is slightly lower than that for the country –  -7.0‰. This is caused pri-
marily by the positive migration increase (+1.4‰). During the surveyed period the
net  migration is  negative  (-1.7‰)  which  is  mostly  due  to  the  emigration. The  in-
migration and out-migration statistics substantially differ and depend on the place
of the territorial unit and its center in the administrative and economic-geographi-
cal  division  of  the  country.  The  positive  migration  increase  predetermines  rela-
tively well-balanced ratios between the main sex and age groups. The age structure
resembles  that  of  the  country.  The  shares  of  below-working  age  (14.9%)  and
above-working age population (22.2%) are smaller than the national average ones
by 1 point and of the working age population (62.9%) – by 0.6 points bigger. The
ethnic structure is notable for its share of gypsies that is close to the national aver-
age  (4.0%),  for  the  smaller  concentration  of  Turkish  population  (6.2%)  and  for  a
higher share of Bulgarian population as compared to the national average – 85.1%.
The intermediate phase of demographic crisis is defined by parameters of demo-
graphic situation, which are similar to those throughout the country. The population
structures  are  basically  formed  by  the  migration  movements  (it  should  be  empha-
sized  that  with  the  abating  migrations  it  is  the  natural  increase  that  becomes  pre-
dominant).  The  favourable  economic-geographical  conditions  and  the  available
economic, servicing and other potential continue to attract in-migrants, which keep
the population balance irrespective of the changing population number. To a great
extent  the  changes  in  the  demographic  situation  in  the  individual  territorial  units
will result from the accelerated process of population aging, reduction of in-migra-
tion  flows  and  universal  transition  to  a  one-child  family  pattern  because  of  eco-
nomic, social, cultural, psychological and some other transformations.
Final phase of demographic crisis. It is characterized by depopulation processes
and population regressive reproduction. The birth rate is very low (about 6.5‰ on
the average) and the lowest values are less than 4‰. The death rate is exceptionally
high  (about  25.5‰  on the average)  and  the extreme  values  are  above  30‰  while
the average  death rate  exceeds the  national  average by  11  points.  As  a result,  the
natural increase is negative (-19.0‰ on the average and higher than the migration
increase) and is considered the primary cause for the population decrease (18‰ on
the  average).  The  migration  increase  and  the  net  migration  are  positive  but  their
values  are  too  low  (0.9‰  on  the  average)  which  actually  does  not  improve  the
population  age  structure.  The  migration  turnover  in  the  municipalities  is  high
which is a sign for their economic, social and demographic destabilization. There-
fore,  the  in-migration  and  out-migration  coefficients  widely  vary.  The  population
aging  has  reached  extreme  values.  The  share  of  below-working  age  population  is
too small (12.1%) which is by 3 points smaller than the national average. There is
an  over-concentration  of  above  working  age  population  (41.4%)  which  is  by  19
points  higher  than  the  national average.  The  ratio  below  working:  above-working

Chavdar Mladenov : The Demographic Crisis in Bulgaria - Geographical Dimensions
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CHAVDAR MLADENOV
age  population  is  less  than  0.3,  which  illustrates  the  heavy  aging  and  the  lack  of
population reproductive capacities. This fact is additionally accentuated by the low
share of working age population – 26.5%, i.e. by 17 points lower than the national
average.  Such  age  structure  explains  the  regressive  type  of  population  reproduc-
tion, which leads to depopulation. The ethnic structure is homogeneous with deci-
sive prevalence of the Bulgarians (90%). The share of the gypsies is 6.6% and is by
2  points  higher  as  compared  to  the  average  figure  for  the  country.  The  share  of
Turkish population is negligible – 2.8%, i.e. by 6 points lower than the average for
the  country.  In  many  of  the  municipalities, this  share  is  0%  or less  than  1%. The
degradation  of  the  demographic  structures  in  the  final  phase  of  the  demographic
crisis  essentially  restricts  the  economic,  cultural  and  urban  development  of  the
municipalities.  The  educational  level  is  very  low  and  most  of  the  people  are  em-
ployed in agriculture. Their incomes are relatively low and include mainly pensions
and  relief  funds.  The  service  infrastructure  is  lagging  behind  in  quantitative  and
qualitative terms and its utilization is inefficient. The economic-geographical loca-
tion,  which  is  rather  unfavorable,  the  available  economic,  social,  servicing,  etc.,
potential and the level of urbanization impede the attraction of in-migrants and thus
by means of positive migration movements to improve the demographic indicators
which will result in a better demographic situation and in mitigation of the demo-
graphic crisis. Consequently, the depopulation of the areas, experiencing this phase
of demographic crisis, will go on.
In  order  to distribute the municipalities  in  Bulgaria according  to  the  phases  of
demographic  crisis,  a  hierarchical  clustering  technique  has  been  used,  based  on
Euclidean distance measures and Ward’s method of clusters' linkage. The cluster-
ing procedure produced a tree diagram in which 3 groups of municipalities can be
distinguished.  Each  one  corresponds  to  the  respective  types  and  sub-types  of
demographic crisis (Figure 1).
During the period 1993–2001 the initial phase of demographic crisis in Bulgaria
affected 77 of a total of 263 surveyed municipalities (29% of their total number),
28.3% of the country's area and 26.5% of the country’s population. They are situ-
ated in 2 of the previous 4 regions of demographic stability – the Eastern Rhodope
district and Northeastern Bulgaria. At the beginning of the 1990s, the birth rate of
these  municipalities  began  to  decrease  in  comparison  with  the  past  and  yet,  it  is
still on the threshold of the simple reproduction (about 14‰). In lots of them, ei-
ther  the Turkish  population  prevails  or the share of  the  gypsies is  high.  A typical
feature  of  the  municipalities,  going  through  this  phase,  is  that  the  demographic
crisis occurs suddenly because of the large-scale emigration of Turkish population
to Turkey.

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This  phase  can  be  divided  into two  sub-phases  –  initial  phase  of  demographic
crisis,  caused  by  impressive  exodus,  and intermediate  phase, occupying  a  border-
line position between stationary and regressive type of demographic situation.
Most  numerous  are  the  municipalities,  experiencing  the  intermediate  phase  of
demographic crisis – 141 of a total of 263 or 53.6% of all municipalities, 58.1% of
the country’s area and 68.8% of the country's population. The municipalities here
perform different functions with priority given to mining industry, resort and rec-
reation  activities,  etc.  Dominant  in  them  is  the  Bulgarian  ethnos  with  its  specific
reproduction and migration behavior. The phase is notable for the higher negative
migration  increase  as  compared  to  the  negative  natural  one  and  for  a  population
aging, which is not so marked.
This phase can be divided into three sub-phases – initial stage, medial stage and
final stage of the intermediate phase.
The  final  phase  of  demographic  crisis  includes  45  municipalities  of  a  total  of
263  surveyed  ones  (17%  of  them)  which  cover  13.6%  of  the  country’s  area  and
4.7%  of  its  population.  The  demographic  indicators  of  the  municipalities  in  this
phase are extremely adverse. With few exceptions, the municipalities are located in
regions of long lasting depopulation – Northwestern Bulgaria, the regions border-
ing on Central West Bulgaria, the Central Stara Planina Mountain with its adjacent
parts  of  the  Danube  Plain,  the  eastern  half  of  the  Upper  Thracian  Lowland  with
regions  of  Sredna  Gora,  Strandzha  and  Sakar.  These  45  municipalities  have  been
integrated into a separate group because of the extremely high death rate, the high
rate  of  population  drop  (resulting  from  the  extremely  high  negative  natural  in-
crease), the heavy population aging and the exceptionally low birth rate.
Nowadays  the  demographic  situation  in  the  country  is  in  crisis,  which  is  evi-
denced by the degraded parameters of the demographic situation as far as the urban
population  is  concerned.  The  emigration  of  young  people  and  the  changes  in  the
reproductive behavior as a result of the socio-economic crisis have contributed to
this  process. Most of the  inner  migration has  turned into  outer  migration  thus ac-
celerating the demographic crisis. The latter has affected severely the rural popula-
tion, too. In the rural regions the demographic crisis started much earlier because of
the village-to-town migration (associated with the government urban policy and the
poor  living  and  labour  conditions  in  villages)  and  the  evolutionary  changes  in
population reproduction. There are no prospects for overcoming the crisis and for
stabilizing  the  demographic  situation  in  the  near  future.  The  high  unemployment
level together with the low standard of living will keep negative net out-migration
balance.
The demographic crisis has incurred serious (and quite often irreversible) losses
on  society,  resulting  in social,  economic  and  settlement  destabilization. Therefore
systems  of  preventive  measures  are  needed  to  restrict  the  adverse  consequences,
which have to underlie the strategies and plans for general and regional socio-eco-

Chavdar Mladenov : The Demographic Crisis in Bulgaria - Geographical Dimensions
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THE DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS IN BULGARIA – GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSIONS
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nomic  development.  The  statistics  show  that  due  to  the  limited  demographic  re-
sources a lot of schools and health centers are likely to be closed and a number of
settlements – to be wiped out of the map. According to 2001-census more than 130
inhabited localities are practically depopulated, more than 3300 localities have less
than 500 inhabitants and are deprived of the rights to elect a mayor and over 1400
settlements have a population of less than 100 people. The depopulation, which has
affected  numerous  settlements,  gives  rise  to  plenty  of  managerial  and  regional
planning problems.
The birth rate decrease below the level of simple reproduction is the major fac-
tor  for  the  current  demographic  crisis.  It  makes  the  base  of  the  age  pyramid  nar-
rower at the expense of its central and top parts. This is the way in which the proc-
ess of population aging as an element of the demographic crisis proceeds. It is the
aging, which is mainly responsible for the rising crude death rate. To sum up, the
low  birth  rate  and  the  high  death  rate  disrupt  the  normal  population  reproduction
pattern.  Besides,  the  demographic  crisis  leads  by  natural  causes  to  a  population
decrease  throughout  the  country  or  in  a  certain  region  of  different  rank  and  to
heavily degrade demographic structures.
The process of aging and the decreasing number of population hamper the or-
ganization of production cycle and the efficient utilization of production technolo-
gies which in turn cuts down the investments for buying expensive equipment and
for carrying out a wide-range of research activities. The smaller number of popula-
tion at working age induces a reduced labour potential. It reflects also on the cul-
tural sphere as the production of films, the publishing of books and the construction
and  maintenance  of  libraries  do  not  pay.  Another  important  consequence  of  the
population aging is the retirement insurance, which becomes more difficult in the
conditions  of  economic  crisis,  unemployment,  low  labour  productivity  and  wide-
spread  “grey  economy”.  With  the  population  aging,  the  pension  and  health  ex-
penses grow. The reduced employment and the drastic drop in the volume of GDP
adversely  affect  the  pension  fund  and  do  not allow  the  old-aged  people to  live  in
dignity.  The  new  scheme  of  health  service  and  social  benefits  is  being  discussed
and  applied  but  it  faces  enormous  difficulties  and  that  is  why  is  ineffective  and
turns out to be a subjective factor, rising the death rate. Owing to the accelerated
depopulation,  many  buildings  (houses,  enterprises,  administrative  buildings,  edu-
cational  establishments),  service  infrastructure  and  equipment  have  been  aban-
doned.  The  same  refers  to  the  local  resources  –  farmland,  recreation  and  tourist
potential.
The most important social problem, which the government has to solve, is the
adequate incomes of the old-aged people in Bulgaria. For that purpose it is neces-
sary to obtain economic stabilization, to speed up the rates of economic growth and
to  introduce  a  better  approach  for  collecting  money  that  goes  to  the  state  budget.

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The  problem  can  partially  be  solved  by  compulsory  and  additional  voluntary  re-
tirement insurance.
The  birth  rate  can  be  encouraged  not  only  by  direct  payments  but  also  by  tax
concessions in  the  conditions  of  market  economy.  The  first  step  in  this respect  is
the application of some elements of the family income taxation in Bulgaria.
Most  of  the  smaller  Bulgarian  villages  exhibit  highly  aggravated  socio-eco-
nomic  characteristics.  These  settlements  and  some  of  their  buildings  can  be  pre-
served to a certain extent by the increasing purchases of country cottages and their
transformation into villas for short-term or long-term recreation – a practice that is
presently  observed.  In  addition,  Bulgaria’s  forthcoming  integration  to  the  EU
makes  a  lot  of  foreigners  buy  rural  properties.  Therefore,  some  of  the  Bulgarian
villages  might  somewhat  recover,  although  an  overall  stabilization  is  unlikely  to
occur.
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