Discussion Papers 1999.
Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration 97-112. p.
GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERNS
97
GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERNS OF THE
1998 HUNGARIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
ZOLTAN KOVACS
INTRODUCTION
The changes in East-Central Europe after 1989 are pivotal in modern history.
Political geographers and scientists have been discussing the geopolitical and ideologi-
cal significance of these events extensively. (O'Loughlin-Wusten 1993) The emerging
democratic systems in this region provide unique opportunities for the study of the
transition from a single-party to a multi-party system and, moreover, the genesis of a
pluralistic society.
In terms of the development of multi-party democracy Hungary represents a specif-
ic case in East-Central Europe. Unlike the experience of many of its neighbours, the
Hungarian communist dictatorship was transformed to a parliamentary democracy in a
gradual manner. Both of the freely elected post-communist governments were able to
complete their full terms, all three post-communist elections resulted in new structures
of powers in the form of coalition governments which made possible rotation and
thereby the maturing of political parties. The high degree of political stability and the
smooth transformation of the political system was quite unique among the new democ-
racies of East-Central Europe, the only comparable country being perhaps Poland.
Therefore it is appropriate that this publication should give an insight, into both
Hungary and Poland. This essay will focus on Hungary.
In this paper we try to explore the geographical differences of the Hungarian elec-
torate in the 1998 parliamentary elections. After a short overview of the post-1989
elections, the nature of the Hungarian electoral system is discussed. Then a picture will
be drawn of the results of the 1998 May elections, where special attention is paid to the
long-term characteristics of post-communist elections. Variations in voting behaviour
are explained by historical factors as well as the present socio-economic structure of
the country. Finally, we try to integrate our findings into a common theoretical frame-
work.
OVERVIEW OF POST-COMMUNIST PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
IN HUNGARY
Moves towards a western-style democracy and market economy had its roots in
Hungary as far back as the 1956 anti-communist revolution. Pressure for a more open
society was steady in the 1970s and 1980s. The first multi-candidate elections, within a

Kovács, Zoltán : Geographical Patterns of the 1998 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections.
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 97-112. p. Discussion Papers. Special
98
ZOLTAN KOVACS
one-party system, were permitted in the 1970s. The ruling communist party supported
a law passed in 1983 mandating contested elections in all parliamentary seats. In 1985
the first of these contested elections was held and a number of so-called independent
candidates defeated official party candidates.
When the collapse of the system became obvious at the end of the 1980s, the com-
munist party started "roundtable discussions" with several opposition groups and
organisations regarding the possibility of the Hungarian constitution and establishing a
multi-party system. During these negotiations a compromise was reached between the
Government and opposition groups which legalised parties. At the end of 1989 a new
electoral law was passed by Parliament and the first free-elections after 1947 were
scheduled for March 1990. (Kovacs 1993)
In 1990, in the first free election, the (Communist) Hungarian Socialist Workers'
Party (MSZMP), which had ruled the country for 43 years, was defeated. The party
received 3.68% of the votes and thus missed the 4% threshold which was necessary for
parliamentary representation. The conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF)
won the elections with 24.73% of the votes and formed a coalition government with
two smaller right-wing parties, the Independent Smallholders' Party (FKGP) and the
Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP; Table 1). The biggest opposition party in
Parliament was the liberal Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) with 21.93%, backed
by — at least ideologically — its smaller sister-party, the Alliance of Young Democrats
(FIDESZ). The only left-wing party which received seats in the newly-elected
Parliament was the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) with 10.89% of the actual votes.
Four years later, in May 1994, the centre-right parties were defeated and the elec-
tion returned to power the reform wing of the former Hungarian Socialist Workers'
Party, now the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP), with a large majority. The 32.99%
of the votes meant that the Socialist Party gained 209 out of the 386 seats in Parliament
and thus achieved an absolute majority. The second most successful party in the elec-
Table 1
Distribution of votes for party-lists in the post-communist elections (%)
(Only parties with parliamentary representation are included)
Parties
1990
1994
1998
Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF)
24.73
11.74
Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ)
21.93
19.74
7.57
Independent Smallholders' Party (FKGP)
11.73
8.82
13.45
Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP)
10.89
32.99
32.92
Alliance of Young Democrats (FIDESZ)
8.95
7.02
29.48
Christian Democratic Pepople's Party (KNDP)
6.46
7.03
Hungarian Truth and Life Party (MIEP)
—
—
5.47
Other parties
15.31
12.66
11.11
Total
100.00
100.00
100.00

Kovács, Zoltán : Geographical Patterns of the 1998 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections.
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 97-112. p. Discussion Papers. Special
GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERNS
99
tion was the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) with 19.74% of the votes and 69
seats in Parliament.
The conservative parties lost support in all regions of the country. The former vic-
tor, the moderate centre-right Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) gained less than
half of its votes in 1990 and finished in third place with 11.74%. The fourth biggest
party, the Smallholders' Party (FKGP) received only 8.82% compared to 11.73% in
1990. Two parties, FIDESZ and the KDNP performed even less successfully and ended
up as the smallest parliamentary parties with roughly 7% of the votes each.
In spite of the fact that the threshold for parliamentary representation was raised
from 4% to 5% in 1994, the same six parties were able to achieve representation in
both elections, but the balance of power shifted enormously. After the 1994 elections,
the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) formed a coalition with its former liberal oppo-
sition partner, the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ), holding a comfortable
majority of 278 seats (72%) in Parliament.
Just as the ousting of the Communist Party in 1990 came as no surprise, the defeat
of the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) in 1994 was equally to be expected. The
years between 1990-1994 were difficult years of transition and modernisation. Despite
the fact that the country attracted two thirds of the total foreign direct investment in
the former socialist countries, most Hungarian companies remained inefficient and
many went bankrupt. Rising unemployment (12-13%), high inflation rates (25-30%)
and declining social security were the main features of the transition. The 1994 result
was the outcome of the dissatisfaction of electorate with the performance of the MDF
government. Many voters, disappointed by the arrogant rhetoric of the former centre-
right coalition government and disillusioned by economic difficulties, were motivated
to vote against the previous government rather than for some clearly stated alternative.
The protest nature of voting in 1994 is also supported by the fact that the greatest
increase in support for the MSZP came in crisis-ridden Eastern Hungary where indus-
trial decline and unemployment were at their most serious.
The four years of the left-liberal coalition government also proved to be difficult.
An increasing budget deficit, high unemployment and economic stagnation was the
heritage of the new regime. The new government implemented strict restrictions (the
so-called Bokros package) in the budget and financial policy in spring 1995, which was
a near disaster for most people, especially the older and retired workers and public
sector employees. As a consequence of this harsh fiscal policy, Hungarian economy
started to recover gradually. By the time of the 1998 elections the economy was show-
ing an astonishing 5% growth, a performance experienced last time in Hungary in the
mid-1970s, thus the ruling parties had an optimistic perspective to be re-elected for
another term. However, the outcome of the elections brought an unexpected surprise.
THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM IN HUNGARY
The Hungarian electoral system, modelled on that of the Federal Republic of
Germany, is a mixture of a single-member electoral district and proportional represen-

Kovács, Zoltán : Geographical Patterns of the 1998 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections.
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 97-112. p. Discussion Papers. Special
100
ZOLTAN KOVACS
tation using two rounds of balloting. In practice two elections are going on at the same
time, because each elector has two votes, one to cast for a specific candidate and
another to cast for a particular party.  (Kovacs 1993)  These two elections are separated
but linked. One link is that most, but not all, the candidates in the constituency repre-
sent particular political parties. The other, more important link is made by geography.
(Dingsdale-lCovtics 1996, Maras et aL 1992)  The country is divided into 176 parliamen-
tary electoral districts. The territories and boundaries of these districts are based on
the geographical distribution of population to ensure broadly similar numbers of vot-
ers in each district. However, these districts 'nest' within counties. County boundaries
are therefore incorporated into the system, making them discrete territories that
become the units for the first tier of the two-tier proportional representation system.
Each party usually puts up a list of county candidates equal to the number of seats
apportioned to that county. The county list is allowed to stand if the party is able to
nominate a candidate (i.e. collects 750 recommendations) in at least two districts in
that county. The 'County List' of candidates elects members on the basis of votes cast
for each party in the 20 counties of Hungary (the capital city Budapest is included as a
county). The second tier is the 'National List' of candidates who are chosen using votes
cast for their party in the country as a whole, but which have not affected the result at
the district or county level (i.e. 'scrap' votes). Political parties must initially organise
county lists in at least seven counties to be eligible to participate in the national voting
pool.
Any party gaining 5% (in 1990 only 4%) or more of the total national vote has a
right to representation in Parliament. The number of constituency members is fixed at
176, but the balance between candidates elected on the 'County List' or 'National List'
can vary depending on the pattern of votes cast, to make up the 386 members of
Parliament.
There are over 130 political parties officially registered in Hungary. The prolifera-
tion of parties owed a great deal to the liberal requirements of the law  (Martis et aL
1992) and few had any real organisation. Most of the smaller parties voice the opinions
of specific interest groups, such as peasants, smallholders, environmentalists, pension-
ers, entrepreneurs or the unemployed. This variety of 'niche' parties reflects the plural-
ity of Hungarian society which has rapidly emerged since 1990 and are often a local
manifestation of single-issue politics. Few of these parties could expect to play a role in
the elections after 1990.
In the 1990 elections 19 parties had sufficient support to set up a county list and
only 12 parties could set up a national list. In 1994 the same number of parties were
able to set up a county list; however, the number of national lists increased to 15. Four
years later in 1998, only 15 parties gained sufficient support to set up a county list and
12 to participate in the national list competition. The decreasing number of parties
both in Parliament and in the contest reflects the gradual maturing of the party-system
and the development of the Hungarian electorate.

Kovács, Zoltán : Geographical Patterns of the 1998 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections.
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 97-112. p. Discussion Papers. Special
GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERNS
101
THE RESULTS OF THE 1998 ELECTIONS
In 1998 the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) nearly repeated its 1994 performance
and finished in first place with 32.92% of the votes in the first round of the elections.
The second biggest party was the moderate-conservative FIDESZ with 29.48%. Since
the other parties received significantly fewer votes than the two front-runners, the final
decision remained for the second round of voting, the single candidate competition.
Thanks to its clever campaign and skilful coalition tactics FIDESZ was able to inte-
grate all conservative votes in the second round and won 90 of the 176 single con-
stituency seats, compared to the Socialists' 54 seats. As a result the biggest party in
Parliament became FIDESZ with 148 seats on aggregate, as opposed to the Socialist
Party (MSZP) with 134 seats. Thus, after four years of socialist-liberal government
FIDESZ had the right to form a conservative coalition government with the
Independent Smallholders' Party (FKGP) and the remnants of the Hungarian
Democratic Forum (MDF).
Two particular aspects of the geography of voting indicate the importance of the
dynamic changes between 1994-1998 for the progress of democratic politics in
Hungary. These are turnout and patterns of support for the major parties at settlement
level.
Voter participation
In 1990, 65% of the electorate voted in the first round and 45% in the second one.
In 1994, 69% voted in the first round and 55% in the second one. This overall increase
in participation was a favourable feature and one would have expected that turnout
would increase well above 70% in the 1998 elections, and thus Hungary would
approach the level of Western democracies.  (Hajdzi 1992)  Therefore, the 56% turnout
in the first round of the 1998 elections was a disappointing result, which was not coun-
terbalanced by the astonishingly high participation (57%) of the second round.
It seems likely that the unexpected decrease in political awareness between 1994-
1998 is related to more than one factor. Among the reasons we would mention peo-
ple's general disappointment in politics, as well as the 'quiet campaign' of the ruling
Socialist Party or the nice sunny weather on the day of elections, which diverted many
voters to weekend activities and away from voting.
The geographical pattern shows stability when compared with 1994.  (Figure 1)  In
both elections the highest turnouts were recorded in the north-west of the country.
The difference between Eastern and Western Hungary is about 20% on average; in
two eastern counties (Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg and Hajd6-Bihar) participation rates
remained below 50%, necessitating a repeat of the first-round election. It seems likely
that this pattern of political awareness is related to the divergent socio-economic
development of regions.
According to survey data the most  important variables predicting voting participa-

Kovács, Zoltán : Geographical Patterns of the 1998 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections.
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 97-112. p. Discussion Papers. Special
GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERNS
105
Figure 4
Voting results of the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP)

Kovács, Zoltán : Geographical Patterns of the 1998 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections.
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 97-112. p. Discussion Papers. Special
GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERNS
107
Figure 6
Voting results of the Workers' Party (Munkcispart)

Kovács, Zoltán : Geographical Patterns of the 1998 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections.
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 97-112. p. Discussion Papers. Special
GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERNS
109
Figure 8
Political geographic profile of Hungary
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among them, whereas the working-class-oriented communist Munkaspart had dispro-
portionately large support in rural areas.
More detailed geographical discussions of political party-support tend to concen-
trate on only the two victorious parties and the extreme right and left-wing parties,
MIEP and the Munkaspart.
The electoral support for the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) shows a relative
stability over time.  (Figure 4) The electoral map shows the distribution of support for
the MSZP in settlements in 1994 and 1998, on the basis of the party gaining more or
less than 30% of the votes on party list. In 1994 the MSZP did best in the crisis-ridden
north-east where industrial decline and unemployment were at their most serious.
(Rivera 1996)  Better results could also be detected in the traditional heartlands of the
left-wing support in Komarom-Esztergom and south of Lake Balaton, in Somogy
county.  (Meszciros-Szakadcit 1995)  In 1994 the Socialists owed their landslide victory
mainly to the strong support of the eastern regions where voters turned against the
policy of the MDF-led government in large numbers. Four years later the MSZP

Kovács, Zoltán : Geographical Patterns of the 1998 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections.
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 97-112. p. Discussion Papers. Special
110
ZOLTAN KOVACS
achieved nearly the same result; however, the geographical pattern of non-left wing
votes had changed substantially.
The spatial pattern of the Alliance of Young Democrats (FIDESZ) shows greater
variations.  (Figure 5) In 1994 the party did not perform successfully and ended up with
7.02% of the votes as not only the youngest, but also the smallest parliamentary party.
In 1998 the party achieved a much better result and through the single candidate com-
petition won the majority in Parliament. What was the secret of FIDESZ in 1998 and
how we can interpret the voting pattern of the party geographically?
In 1994 internal conflicts within the party foreshadowed the eventual demise of
voter support for FIDESZ.  (Kukorelli-Racz 1995)  However, between 1994-1998 the
party went through a consolidation and gradually shifted to the right. At the same time
the traditional conservative parties (MDF and KDNP) were considerably weakened by
inter-party rivalries and subsequent splits between the different platforms of these par-
ties. This gave FIDESZ a good opportunity collect all the Christian democratic/conser-
vative votes.
In 1994 the MSZP was able to integrate most of the left-wing votes, four years later
FIDESZ was able to do the same. The party recorded its best results in north-western
Hungary and in the eastern part of the country. This contradiction can be explained by
two different factors. In the western counties (Vas, Veszprem) FIDESZ managed to
replace the MDF and KDNP and most of their voters gathered under the banner of
the Young Democrats. In the east (Hajdu-Bihar, Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg) people who
were disappointed with the ineffective regional policy of the socialist-liberal govern-
ment turned also towards FIDESZ.
The spatial pattern of satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) with the earlier regime can
also be detected in the results of the smaller, but more radical parties. The geographi-
cal spread of votes for the Workers' Party, the remnant of the former Communist
Party, also shows a high level of stability.  (Figure 6) The party is clearly strongest in a
north-south zone east of the Tisza River.  (Dingsdale-Kovcics 1996)  This region has
experienced the least benefit from the post-communist changes, thus, nostalgia
towards the communist regime is the strongest in this part of the country.
The nationalist/populist Hungarian Truth and Life Party (MIEP), a former fraction
of the MDF, received only 1.56% in the 1994 elections and did not gain parliamentary
representation. However, four years later the party performed much better and with
5.47% of the votes became the smallest parliamentary party.  (Figure 7) The success of
MIEP has several components. The low level of turnout favoured the party, just like
the turmoil in other right-wing parties (MDF, KDNP). In 1998 the party did especially
well in the central regions of the country, in Budapest and its agglomeration. This
clearly indicates that the party is supported not so much by voters of the crisis regions
— as one would expect — but the dissatisfied strata of the more developed urban
regions, petty bourgeois, civil servants and those who experienced dramatic decline in
their status during the last eight years.

Kovács, Zoltán : Geographical Patterns of the 1998 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections.
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 97-112. p. Discussion Papers. Special
GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERNS
111
CONCLUSION
The first free post-communist Hungarian elections resulted in three different types
of power in Parliament with seemingly dramatic changes. What were the reasons for
the results of the 1994 and 1998 Hungarian general elections and how has a geographi-
cal analysis thrown particular light upon them?
As our geographical analysis reveals, in those districts in which foreign investment
and economic dynamism had stimulated increased prosperity (i.e. Western Hungary),
voters turned out in greater numbers to support the centre (i.e. MDF, SZDSZ,
FIDESZ) in all three elections. Where the economic changes had hit hardest, voters
turned out strongly to register their desire for policy changes, and supported in 1994
the MSZP, then FIDESZ in 1998.
The geographical analysis of the votes suggests that the victory of both the MSZP
and FIDESZ was a result of the protest of the disillusioned economic losers of the
transformation. The mass of people who suffered from the dismantling of the socialist
economy and the economic recession voted against the ruling parties both in 1994 and
1998.
On the basis of the results of the 1990, 1994 and 1998 parliamentary elections the
map of political stability and awareness can be constructed for Hungary.  (Figure 8)  It
reveals that Hungary can be divided into three major regions with respect to political
awareness and party preference of the population. In this framework, Western
Hungary and Budapest can be classified as stable and politically more mature regions,
with high turnout rates and ideologically-stable party preference. On the other hand,
Eastern Hungary can be classified as an unstable, politically less motivated and mature
region, with generally low turnout rates and considerable swings in party preference.
Between the two politically stable and unstable zones, a mixed central region can be
distinguished, which can be further differentiated, with some districts moving towards
particular party orientations and thus stability, whilst others have an unstable tendency.
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