Discussion Papers 1999.
Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration 49-58. p.
TRANSFORMATION OF THE MIGRATIONAL PROCESSES
49
TRANSFORMATION OF THE MIGRATIONAL
PROCESSES IN POLAND (1988-1994)
TOMASZ KOMORNICKI
The years 1988- 1994 were a period of significant slowdown of the internal migra-
tional processes in Poland. This was initially the derivative of the situation in the
labour market and in the housing market. The increase of unemployment in the small
and medium-sized urban centres effectively discouraged a significant number of poten-
tial migrants. Then, on the other hand, in large agglomerations, where unemployment
is much lower, the barrier to migrational decisions lay with the difficulties in getting an
apartment (the collapse of the housing sector and the high rents). I will present here a
short characterisation of the scale of the afore-mentioned decrease of permanent
migrations and its regional differentiation. Then, I will show the results of the study of
migrational attractiveness of particular voivodships, carried out in 1996 by the Institute
of Labour and Social Affairs.
However, let us note at this point that Polish statistics concerning migrations
account for the persons who changed their residence and subsequently fulfilled the
registration duty elsewhere. Thus, the statistics encompass the persons who register
when they move to their new permanent residence (permanent migrations) and to a
temporary one (temporary migrations), providing that they moved to another adminis-
trative unit of the basic level (commune — gmina). The data obtained in this manner
bear a high degree of error due to the following factors:
— lack of data on significant mobility within large towns;
lack of data on the significant number of persons who, due to various rea-
sons, have not registered (e.g. in order to retain the right to the commu-
nal apartment);
lack of data on the several thousand Poles who have been abroad for a
number of years already, and who left the country with just a tourist pass-
port;
inclusion in the official data of the persons registering fictitiously (e.g. in
order to secure payment of lower taxes and other dues, which are region-
ally differentiated).
During the last five years the importance of the error mentioned has certainly
increased. Until 1989, namely, registration was subject to a much more rigorous state
control. It can therefore be expected that the decrease of migrational flow was in reali-
ty somewhat smaller than is reflected in the. official statistical data.
During the period analysed both the intensity of inter-voivodship and intra-voivod-
ship migrations was on the decrease. The rural-to-urban migrations have been system-
Tomasz Komornicki : Transformation of the Migrational Processes in Poland (1988-1994).
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs, Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 49-58. p. Discussion Papers. Special
50
TOMASZ KOMORNICKI
atically decreasing each year from 234,000 persons in 1988 to a mere 130,000 in 1994.
The positive net migration to towns diminished in this period from 144,000 persons to
40,000. Likewise, the intensity of migrations among towns systematically decreased,
though the scale of this phenomenon was here smaller (a decrease from 171,000 per-
sons in 1988 down to 130,000 in 1994). The downward tendency did not only affect the
urban-to-rural migration flow. Consequently, the role played by the rural-to-urban
migrations, which have been dominant among all the migration directions since World
War II, diminished gradually. In 1994 for the first time the total number of persons
migrating between towns was greater than those migrating from the countryside to
towns.
Until 1992 there had also been a systematic increase of the share of intra-voivodship
migrations, which brought a reduction in the average distance of permanent move-
ments. This was the opposite tendency to that observed in the majority of highly devel-
oped countries. The greatest drop of mobility occurred among the young (15-29 years
of age), traditionally those most often migrating. The socio-economic situation was
more advantageous for older persons to make migrational decisions, especially for
those with higher professional skills and greater financial options (the housing prob-
lem).
THE INTER -VOIVODSHIP AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATIONS
In the category of inter-voivodship migrations the greatest decrease of intensity of
movements concerned the traditional rural-to-urban direction. It is characteristic that
the decrease in this category continues. Migrations within the countryside decreased
quickly in the period 1988-1990, while urban-to-rural migrations were decreasing only
until 1989, after which a slow increase occurred.
The greatest inflow of migrants from other voivodships (per 1,000 inhabitants) per-
sisted until the beginning of the 1990s in the mining and industrial basins (Katowice
and, especially, Legnica voivodships). In 1994 the highest inflow was observed first of
all in the large polifunctional urban agglomerations (Warsaw, Poznan, Gdansk, Cracow
and Wroclaw), and in some submountainous areas (Jelenia Gora and Bielsko-Biala
provinces). The greatest outflow, on the other hand, have been observed from
Northern Poland (from Slupsk, Koszalin and Elblgg voivodships), from Northern
Mazovia (from LomZa, Ostrolcka) and from the Sudetes Mountains.
The process of concentration of migrational flows in the towns of only some voivod-
ships deepened still further. This found its expression in further decrease of the num-
ber of voivodships featuring positive net inter-voivodship migration for towns. In 1988
there were 39 such voivodships (out of the total of 49); in 1992, 25; and by 1994 only
18. In 1988 the highest positive net migrations characterised the towns in Katowice and
Legnica provinces. Currently, it is the towns of Warsaw, Gdansk, Cracow, Poznan and
Wroclaw voivodships that are at the forefront.
Tomasz Komornicki : Transformation of the Migrational Processes in Poland (1988-1994).
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs, Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 49-58. p. Discussion Papers. Special
TRANSFORMATION OF THE MIGRATIONAL PROCESSES
51
At the same time, the number of voivodships with positive net migrations to rural
areas increases. In 1988 there were 6 such voivodships, while already by 1994 there
were 10. Until 1993 a distinctly positive net migration to rural areas was displayed only
by three voivodships (Katowice, Warsaw and Lodi). In 1994 the positive net migration
in Katowice province drastically dropped, while, simultaneously, the positive net
migration to rural areas increased in Cracow, Poznan and Jelenia Gora voivodships.
Legal foreign migration, meaning here emigration, concerns mainly persons acquir-
ing German citizenship on the basis of having been born within the territory of the pre-
war Germany, and of a declaration of belonging to the German ethnic minority. Over
many years the highest negative net foreign migration was observed in Opole voivod-
ship, for precisely the reason above. In 1994, however, the level of emigration was
higher in Katowice voivodship. This may have resulted also from the worsening of the
previously privileged position of the inhabitants of the Upper Silesian industrial region
in terms of their standard of living. A new phenomenon appeared in the shape of legal
immigration from abroad, encompassing primarily persons who return to Poland after
several years of residing abroad and from the process of family re-unification. The
inflow of legal immigrants from abroad concentrates mainly in the agglomeration-cen-
tred voivodships (especially in Warsaw and Gdansk provinces).
Thus, the spatial distribution of voivodships with the highest positive total net inter-
voivodship and international migrations underwent a significant transformation. In
1988 the highest positive net migrations were observed in the mining and industrial
basins (Katowice, Legnica), as well as in Warsaw, Lodi and Poznan voivodships.
(Figure I ) In 1994 the polifunctional urban agglomerations (Warsaw, Poznan, Cracow,
Gdansk and Wroclaw) and Bielsko-Biala voivodship dominated. (Figure 2) These are
the voivodships which simultaneously feature the highest dynamics of development of
the private sector of economy and host the biggest foreign investments (e.g. Fiat Auto
Poland in Bielsko-Biala voivodship).
THE INTRA VOIVODSHIP MIGRATIONS
-
In the category of intra-voivodship migrations the dominating role is played consis-
tently by the inter-town migrations. The dominating role of this type of migrations
intensifies, because the decrease of their intensity in the period 1988-1994 was distinct-
ly lower than along the rural-to-urban direction. The intra-voivodship migrations
among villages and from towns to villages have remained at a level unchanged since
1990.
During the whole period analysed the northern and western parts of Poland fea-
tured higher intensity of intra-voivodship migrations. This especially applies to the so-
called Regained Territories, where there was a complete exchange of population after
World War II (increased propensity to migrate) and where agriculture had been until
1989 dominated by the state sector (lack of attachment to own land). During the 1990s
this spatial distinction started to slowly diminish, since the drop of Mobility within the
Tomasz Komornicki : Transformation of the Migrational Processes in Poland (1988-1994).
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs, Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 49-58. p. Discussion Papers. Special
52
TOMASZ KOMORNICKI
Figure 1
Total net inter- voivodship and international migrations, 1988
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1
1
Voivodship of:
1
1
1
Katowice
Legnica
Warsaw
LOdi
Poznan
Lublin
Gdansk
Szczecin
Bialystok
-MI
Cracow
Bielsko-Biala
•
RzeszOw
Torun
Skierniewice
II/
Krosno
MI
Wroclaw
MENI
Zielona Gora
II=
Bydgoszcz
ENE
Sieradz
OEM
Koszalin
Skupsk
Tarnow
Tarnobrzeg
GorzOw Wielkopolski
Leszno
Olsztyn
Kalisz
Pita
Piotrkow Trybunalski
Suwalki
Chelm
Radom
Czestochowa
Przeinygl
Nowy Sacz
Ciechanow
Biala Podlaska
Konin
Opole
Plock
Kielce
Walbrzych
Ostrolcka
Jelenia GOra
Siedlce
Wloclawek
Elblag
Lorna
Zamoge
Tomasz Komornicki : Transformation of the Migrational Processes in Poland (1988-1994).
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs, Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 49-58. p. Discussion Papers. Special
TRANSFORMATION OF THE MIGRATIONAL PROCESSES
53
Figure 2
Total net inter-voivodship and international migrations, 1994
-6
—4
—2
0
2
4
6
Voivodship o•
Warsaw
Poznan
Cracow
Wroclaw
Gdansk
Bielsko-Biala
Lodi
Rzeszow
Skierniewice
Szczecin
Lublin
Jelenia Cora
Nowy Sqcz
Bialystok
Bydgoszcz
Sieradz
Zielona Gora
Pita
Koszalin
Czotochowa
Legnica
Kalisz
Torun
Leszno
Piotrk6w Trybunalski
Krosno
Chelm
Tarnow
Olsztyn
Radom
Tied
Stupsk
Wloclawek
Katowice
Gorzow Wielkopolski
Plock
Przemy§1
Konin
Biala Podlaska
Walbrzych
Suwalki
Ciechanow
Opole
Zamoge
Ostrolgka
Kielce
Elbl4g
MENIENMN
LornZa
Tomasz Komornicki : Transformation of the Migrational Processes in Poland (1988-1994).
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs, Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 49-58. p. Discussion Papers. Special
54
TOMASZ KOMORNICKI
Table 1
Table 2
Migration attractiveness, 1988
Migration attractiveness, 1994
Rank
Voivodship of:
Indicator
Rank
Voivodship of:
Indicator
value
value
I
Katowice
0.6105
I
Warsaw
0.7045
2
Lodi
0.5932
2
Cracow
0.7031
3
Cracow
0.5713
3
Gdansk
0.6267
4
Warsaw
0.5583
4
Wroclaw
0.6230
5
Skiemiewice
0.5144
5
Poznan
0.6138
6
Poznan
0.5075
6
Lodi
0.6130
7
Legnica
0.4979
7
Katowice
0.5591
8
Bielsko-Biala
0.4793
8
RieszOw
0.5312
9
Opole
0.4737
9
Szczecin
0.5254
10
Rzeszow
0.4708
10
Bielsko-Biala
0.5183
11
Lublin
0.4655
11
Skierniewice
0.5005
12
Wroclaw
0.4654
12
Opole
0.4989
13
Chelm
0.4601
13
Lublin
0.4978
14
Gdansk
0.4577
14
Jelenia Gora
0.4954
15
Bialystok
0.4482
15
Sieradz
0.4854
16
Szczecin
0.4378
16
Ciechanow
0.4832
17
Piotrkow Trybunalski
0.4360
17
Zielona GOra
0.4765
18
CiechanOw
0.4274
18
Chelm
0.4761
19
Loma
0.4200
19
Torun
0.4721
20
Olsztyn
0.4173
20
Bialystok
0.4691
21
Tarnow
0.4149
21
Legnica
0.4654
22
Krosno
0.4123
22
Olsztyn
0.4602
23
Nowy S4cz
0.4010
23
Czqstochowa
0.4438
24
Torun
0.3959
24
Nowy S4cz
0.4431
25
Koszalin
0.3826
25
Pila
0.4421
26
Zielona Gora
0.3789
26
Tarnow
0.4417
27
Slupsk
0.3716
27
Slupsk
0.4398
28
Tamobrzeg
0.3707
28
Koszalin
0.4386
29
Pila
0.3682
29
Siedlce
0.4380
30
Bydgoszcz
0.3669
30
Bydgoszcz
0.4373
31
Sieradz
0.3610
31
Leszno
0.4237
32
Elblag
0.3596
32
Gorzew Wielkopolski
0.4147
33
Gorzow Wielkopolski
0.3558
33
0 strokka
0.4147
34
Leszno
0.3518
34
Kalisz
0.4130
35
Kalisz
0.3504
35
Piotrk6w Trybunalski
0.4117
36
Czotochowa
0.3490
36
Loma
0.4067
37
Radom
0.3465
37
Tamobrzeg
0.4038
38
Jelenia Gora
0.3369
38
Biala Podlaska
0.4029
39
Ostrokka
0.3361
39
Plock
0.3992
40
Siedlce
0.3328
40
Walbrzych
0.3916
41
Biala Podlaska
0.3297
41
Krosno
0.3914
42
Plock
0.3230
42
Radom
0.3870
43
Suwalki
0.3208
43
Przemyil
0.3777
44
Walbrzych
0.3136
44
Wloclawek
0.3739
45
Konin
0.2989
45
Elblag
0.3703
46
Wloclawek
0.2946
46
Zamok
0.3647
47
Przemy§1
0.2938
47
Suwalki
0.3643
48
Kielce
0.2829
48
Konin
0.3600
49
Zamok
0.2616
49
Kielce
0.3600
Tomasz Komornicki : Transformation of the Migrational Processes in Poland (1988-1994).
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs, Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 49-58. p. Discussion Papers. Special
TRANSFORMATION OF THE MIGRATIONAL PROCESSES
55
Figure 3
Migration attractiveness of Polish voivodships, 1988
Migration attractiveness, 1988
Indicator value:
• 0.6 — 0.610501
(1)
0.5 — 0.6
(5)
0.4 — 0.5
(17)
0.3 — 0.4
(21)
0 0
— 0.3
(5)
Tomasz Komornicki : Transformation of the Migrational Processes in Poland (1988-1994).
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs, Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 49-58. p. Discussion Papers. Special
56
TOMASZ KOMORNICKI
western and northern Regained Territories was greater than in Central and Eastern
Poland (in particular because of the collapse of the former state farms).
Since 1992 there has been a systematic increase in the role of intra-voivodship
migrations from towns to villages in the agglomeration-centred voivodships (Warsaw,
Gdansk and Wroclaw), in Legnica province and in some other voivodships of Western
Poland. In the case of the former this is related to the flight of the wealthier towards
suburban villas, in the case of the latter voivodships, to the return to the countryside of
those having lost their jobs in industry.
THE LEVEL OF MIGRATIONAL ATTRACTIVENESS OF VOIVODSHIPS
The analysis previously commented upon found its confirmation in the study of
migrational attractiveness of voivodships, conducted by the Institute of Labour and
Social Affairs. In this study nine variables were used to calculate the synthetic indica-
tor of migrational attractiveness. Out of these nine variables six were describing in a
direct manner the intensity of migration flow from and to a given voivodship, and two
represented the structure of these flows. All the nine variables were ascribed the same
weight. The indicator obtained is a statistical measure. Its values are comparable with-
in one year. The changes in the period 1988-1994 can only be assessed in terms of the
comparison of rankings.
In 1988 the highest attractiveness, both within the area under study and in the whole
of Poland, was displayed by the most industrialised Katowice voivodship. (Table 1,
Figure 3) The consecutive ranks were taken by the agglomeration-centred voivodships,
with an interesting fact being the attractiveness of Loth voivodship (featuring the
biggest domination of industrial functions in this group of provinces) being higher than
that of Cracow, Warsaw and Poznan voivodships. The remaining large agglomerations
(Gdansk, Wroclaw and Szczecin) ranked far lower (in 14th, 12th and 16th respective-
ly). A relatively high attractiveness was displayed, on the other hand, by almost all
voivodships of the strongly industrialised southern parts of Poland, especially Legnica,
Opole, Bielsko-Biala and Rzeszow, as well as Olsztyn, Bialystok and Lublin provinces
(where the biggest centres within the so-called Eastern Wall are located), and Piotrkow
voivodship (industrial development linked with the lignite mining in Belchatow). The
least attractive were the remaining eastern voivodships and the area of the Sudetes
Mountains.
In 1994 the highest attractiveness indicator moved towards the units surrounding
large agglomerations of polifunctional character, with Warsaw and Cracow voivodships
being clear leaders. (Table 2, Figure 4) Of particular interest is the advance of Gdansk
(from 14th to 3rd position), Wroclaw (from 12th to 4th position) and Szczecin (from
16th to 9th place). There was, on the other hand, a relative worsening of the position
of Lod2 voivodship. The typically industrial provinces dropped out of the top ten.
Katowice fell from 1st to 7th position, and Legnica from 7th to 21st. The voivodships
surrounding medium-sized centres in Southern and South-Eastern Poland (like
Tomasz Komornicki : Transformation of the Migrational Processes in Poland (1988-1994).
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs, Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 49-58. p. Discussion Papers. Special
TRANSFORMATION OF THE MIGRATIONAL PROCESSES
57
Figure 4
Migration attractiveness of Polish voivodships, 1994
Migration attractiveness, 1994
Indicator value:
0.7 — 0.704498 (2)
0.6 — 0.7
(4)
0.5 — 0.6
(5)
[i] 0.4 — 0.5
(27)
u 0 — 0.4
(11)
Tomasz Komornicki : Transformation of the Migrational Processes in Poland (1988-1994).
In: Spatial Research in Support of the European Integration. Pécs, Centre for Regional Studies,
1999. 49-58. p. Discussion Papers. Special
58
TOMASZ KOMORNICKI
Bielsko-Biala, Rzeszow, Lublin, Opole) retained their positions around 10th place.
There was a downward move of the spatial units whose previous high attractiveness
had been linked with the mining industry developing in the 1970s (Piotrkow — lignite —
from 17th to 35th position, Tarnobrzeg — sulphur — from 28th to 37th place).
The least attractive voivodships are still concentrated along the eastern border, in
Malopolska (especially Kielce province) and in Kujawy. A very specific situation arose
in the traditionally unattractive Sudetes Mountains. Walbrzych voivodship remained in
the bottom ten of the ranking, while Jelenia G6ra advanced from 38th to 14th position.
Similarly, the rank of the neighbouring Zielona G6ra province improved from 26th to
17th position. In both cases this may be related to the pefi-boundary prosperity of the
1990s. It is characteristic that all the four voivodships located along the western border
of Poland improved their positions in the ranking (three of them to a very important
degree). At the same time, out of the nine eastern border provinces seven moved down
the ranking.
These voivodships rankings find their confirmation in the analysis of net inter-
voivodship and international migrations for individual spatial units. (Figures 1, 2) Still,
it must be noted that some voivodships retained their high relative attractiveness while
having decidedly negative net migrations (like Katowice in 1994: 7th position in the
ranking of attractiveness and 35th in the ranking of net migrations). This is connected
with the persisting high absolute migrational inflow, high share of young people in the
inflow and the positive net temporary migration (based on temporary residence regis-
tration).
SUMMARY
To sum up, let us state that the continuing decrease of internal mobility is by no
means conducive to an equalisation of the living standards of Poles, whose differentia-
tion has been on the increase during the systemic transformation period. On the one
hand this makes it more difficult to fight unemployment, by deepening its concentra-
tion in the regions of the most pronounced economic collapse, and on the other hand —
although this phenomenon is not that acute — it is one of the causes of persistent
labour shortage, with the highest skills migrating to the most dynamically developing
centres. In such a context it is possible to venture a proposition that the situation on
the labour market is not only the cause, but to some extent also the effect of the slow-
down of migrational movements. It appears that the factors limiting the mobility of
Poles are as follows: firstly, the housing market situation; followed by a reluctance to
make migrational decisions, caused by the shrinking of the protective role of the state;
and only in the third place the situation in the labour market. Given this assumption,
and the persisting crisis of the housing construction sector, it can hardly be expected
that the tendency of decreasing migration flows will undergo an essential reversal in
next few years.